I wrote a post a couple of weeks ago on the Lakers' odds of making it to the playoffs. While currently working on another post on what the final Playoff picture will most likely look like for both conferences and all positions, I wanted to respond to an article on NBA.com on whether the Lakers or the Mavericks have a shot at the #8 spot in the West.
Portland, Houston and Utah have not be doing as well lately as they had been until now, which might give both the Lakers and the Mavericks some hope for some post-season action.
Running some simulations for all five teams' upcoming performance, here's what transpired:
| Position | Lakers Probability | Mavericks Probability | Jazz Probability | TrailBlazers Probability | Rockets Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | / | / | / | / | 0.4 |
| 4 | / | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.3 | 3 |
| 6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 10.4 | 1.9 | 10.2 |
| 7 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 26.9 | 9.3 | 32.1 |
| 8 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 28.8 | 14.6 | 29.9 |
| 9 | 20.7 | 15.3 | 18.8 | 27.2 | 14.2 |
| 10 | 29.7 | 25.1 | 8 | 24.1 | 6.8 |
| 11 | 26.1 | 32.9 | 2.5 | 16.9 | 2.2 |
| 12 | 6 | 8.8 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 0.3 |
| 13 | 1.4 | 3.1 | / | 0.7 | / |
| 14 | 0.4 | 0.9 | / | 0.3 | / |
| 15 | / | 0.3 | / | / | / |
The Lakers' probability of making the Playoffs is 15.7% and has significantly increased over the past two weeks since my previous post, thanks to three consecutive wins at home before winning 4 out of 7 during a grueling road trip! This 70% win probability over the last 10 games has boosted home and road winning percentages in the model.
As for the Mavericks, their probability of making the Playoffs is close to the Lakers: 13.6%. The Trailblazers' have almost twice as much of a chance of making with 26.2%. The Jazz (69.9%) and Rockets (76.5%), have less to concern themselves with at this point, but should still remain on their guards, there are no guarantees in the NBA!
So while the Rockets', Jazz's and Trailblazers' latest stumbles can give Lakers and Mavericks fans some hope, they should remain realists, the road to climb out of their respectives holes to reach the eight spot is long and difficult one, but there is no doubt that both teams will fight till the final game!
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