On Sekou Smith's Hang Time Blog the experts favor Oklahoma City 5 votes to 1, but what do the stats say?
The same model that was used to correctly predict the Thunder in 5 against the Lakers, and had slightly favored the Spurs in 7 over the Thunder in 6, gives a small advantage to OKC given its track record and homecourt advantage, but the margin is extremely close:
| Winner | Num games | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| OKC | 4 | 6.4% |
| MIA | 4 | 6.0% |
| OKC | 5 | 13.8% |
| MIA | 5 | 11.3% |
| OKC | 6 | 15.0% |
| MIA | 6 | 16.3% |
| OKC | 7 | 17.0% |
| MIA | 7 | 14.4% |
So if I had to put my money down, it would be for the Thunder in 7 as 3 NBA.com experts claimed.
But be careful, Miami in 6 is a very close possibility!
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