Wednesday, May 23, 2012

NBA: Spurs VS Thunder

Time for a playoff update now that the two contenders for the Western Finals are known.

Everybody wants to see Spurs VS Heat, but before then comes the Thunder hurdle, and despite the Spurs impressive performance up til now, this is definitely going to be a tough challenge.

The method is exactly the same from my previous post (which correctly identified Thunder beating the Lakers in 5 as the most likely scenario!). Entering the last numbers in the model, here's what came out:

Probability of Spurs winning the series: 55.6%

Series breakout:

Winner Number of games Probability
Spurs 4 6.6%
Thunder 4 5.3%
Spurs 5 15.8%
Thunder 5 9.5%
Spurs 6 14.3%
Thunder 6 16.9%
Spurs 7 19.0%
Thunder 7 12.7%

The three most likely scenarios are:
Spurs in 7 (19.0%), Thunder in 6 (16.9%) and Spurs in 5 (15.8%).

For the overall playoffs, the latest numbers suggests the West as championship favorites for now:

NBA team Champion Probability
SAS 34.4%
OKC 25.7%
MIA 21%
BOS 12%
IND 4.6%
PHI 2.4%

Verdict in the upcoming weeks!

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